@jab I do remember fighting you but don't recall the specifics or how long ago it was, or if it was before or after guild update. If I won, it must have been before, because I have won so few games since that update. As for MMR, I was up in the 70's, the MMR you see in that screenshot is the result of my constant losses via antag.
If I had an MMR advantage last time we fought, then it would be only 1 time of a literal handful of matches that the MMR system has ever favored me. I consistently fight teams on 10% or lower than me, but have only fought higher MMR raiders enough times I can count them on 1 hand. They are so rare no matter what I do, if I am at 70% I will fight 60. I once lowered from 70 down to 35%, and I fought a team in the 20's that had a level 300 and 400. We have all fought juggernaut AI when a weak antag invades, but since it's so rare for me, I swear I must be flagged in the matchmaking system to always be on the disadvantaged side.
But currently, even when I fight teams that are exactly my MMR, like Tekato said, it's like the mission is 10% difficulty.
Anyways I uploaded this tiny clip of one of my games last night just to display my point. Look at how many kills I got and still lose. Look at how many ads are on the field that can't shoot anything even when the raider is down for the count. Like you said, if an antag invades, the raiders have absolutely nothing to fear except the antag itself. 57 kills across 25 minutes. I have more of the match recorded but this moment just made me laugh at the absurdity
https://youtu.be/awDZfZzzdU0Another match I had last night, the Raiders killed Marmalade within 1 overload. By the time the black screen cleared from the cutscene, they were already standing at the pig with 7 out of 8 aleph needed to win. 11% lower MMR. Then they watched the cutscene.
Fought them again on White noise and they watched the watched the ending cutscene again. Just to reiterate that raiders have become a lot more bold in their attitude since the game has been favoring them.